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How much is AI search costing you?

Q: Is this the revenue I will definitely lose?

No - it's revenue at risk under a simple model. It does not account for brand-search durability, paid backfill, or clicks you win back by being cited inside AI Overviews. Treat it as a planning range, not a forecast.

Estimate the organic traffic and revenue Google AI Overviews are putting at risk - using the real CTR-loss figures from Ahrefs and Seer. Change the inputs to see conservative, moderate, and aggressive scenarios.

Monthly organic traffic (sessions)

AI Overview exposure - % of traffic on AIO queries

CTR-loss scenario

Conversion rate (%)

Average order value / deal size ($)

Runs in your browser - nothing is sent anywhere.

estimated annual revenue at risk

clicks lost / month

clicks lost / year

customers lost / month

Recovery: getting cited inside AI Overviews can recover an estimated 20–40% of this - see how to get cited. This model excludes brand-search durability and paid backfill.

01 The math

How the number is calculated

The model is deliberately simple and transparent:

Annual revenue at risk =
  Monthly traffic
  × AIO-exposure %
  × CTR-loss coefficient
  × Conversion rate
  × Average order value
  × 12

The CTR-loss coefficient is the share of clicks the top result loses when an AI Overview appears. We offer three, all from public studies:

Scenario	CTR loss	Source
Conservative	40%	Blended site-wide planning figure
Moderate	58%	Ahrefs, 300k keywords, Dec 2025
Aggressive	65%	Seer Interactive, 3,119 queries

The trend is worsening: Ahrefs measured 34.5% CTR loss in an earlier study and 58% by late 2025 - and noted the earlier figure was "likely the highest the CTR will be." What the model deliberately excludes: brand/direct search that AI can't intercept, paid search backfill, and - importantly - the traffic you recover by being cited inside the AI answer.

02 Why it matters

The blue link is being replaced by an answer

By early 2026, AI Overviews appeared on roughly 48% of Google searches, and around 68% of searches now end without a click. For informational content, the old deal - write a helpful page, earn the click - is quietly breaking. The click is being absorbed into an answer box that may or may not name you.

This calculator exists to put a number on that shift so you can decide how much to invest in GEO. If the figure is small, your traffic is durable and you can relax. If it's large, the fix isn't to fight the AI answer - it's to become the source it cites.

FAQ

Frequently asked questions

Where does the 58% figure come from?

Ahrefs' December 2025 study of 300,000 keywords found the #1 organic result loses ~58% of its clicks when a Google AI Overview is present (up from 34.5% in their earlier study). Seer Interactive corroborated a ~61% drop across 3,119 queries. We use 58% as the 'Moderate' coefficient.

What should I put for AI Overview exposure %?

It's the share of your organic traffic on queries that trigger AI Overviews. Informational/blog-heavy sites run high (50–90%); ecommerce and transactional sites run low (10–20%). Not sure? Measure it with the AI Overview Exposure Checker and plug the number in here.

Is this the revenue I will definitely lose?

No - it's revenue at risk under a simple model. It does not account for brand-search durability, paid backfill, or clicks you win back by being cited inside AI Overviews. Treat it as a planning range, not a forecast.

How do I recover this traffic?

By getting cited inside the AI answers that are replacing your blue links - that's what GEO (Generative Engine Optimization) is. Start with the 9 tactics for getting cited.